Likelihood of Having a Baby After One, Two, or Three IVF Cycles: Insights from VARTA

If you're considering or undergoing in vitro fertilization (IVF), you might be curious about the likelihood of having a baby after a specific number of cycles.

Recent data compiled for VARTA (Victorian Assisted Reproductive Treatment Authority) provides insights into this question. The research, conducted by the University of New South Wales National Perinatal Epidemiology and Statistics Unit, tracked thousands of women who initiated IVF treatment in Victoria in 2016 and 2017. The study focused on stimulated cycles, where eggs are collected, and resulting embryos, including both fresh and frozen, are transferred individually.

Key Findings:

1. Cumulative Live Birth Rate:
   • The data, analyzed over a minimum of three years and a maximum of four years, indicates that the majority of women do not achieve a live birth after the first IVF cycle.
   • The cumulative live birth rate increases with the number of cycles.
2. Age and Success Rates:
   • Younger age at the start of IVF is associated with higher success rates.
   • Women aged 30-31 had a 48% chance of a baby after one cycle, which increased to 61% after two cycles and 67% after three cycles (cumulative live birth rate).
   • For women aged 34-35, the chances were 40%, 54%, and 61% for one, two, and three cycles, respectively.
   • Women aged 40-41 had a 13% chance after one cycle, 21% after two cycles, and 25% after three cycles.
3. Realistic Expectations:
   • The research aims to provide individuals with more realistic expectations about IVF success rates.
   • Recognizing that multiple cycles may be needed for a reasonable chance of success can guide decision-making.

Important Considerations:

• The data presents averages, and individual circumstances can vary.
• Age is a significant factor, but other factors also contribute to IVF success.
• Using donated eggs from a younger woman may influence success rates.
• Pregnancies achieved naturally are not included in the dataset.

Understanding these success rates can assist individuals in making informed decisions about the duration and expectations of their IVF journey.

Reference: How likely are you to have a baby after one, two or three IVF cycles? | VARTA